I have been very slow to answer this post because I have been trying to think of a way of communicating my perspective on this issue. I think I have understood your question but that you have not understood my answers (as you are well aware, any miscommunication is always the other guys fault).
Now, having decided what to say, I went to seriously approach the question you asked. But first, I printed out your post so that I could take into account the nuances of your presentation. Prior to this, I had only read the first part. Having now read the whole post, I have only one answer: I agree with you 100%.
Fundamentally, you have to trust your subconscious because a good answer to almost any relevant day to day question is completely outside the abilities of your conscious awareness. Now if you want to ask me if 1+1=2, I can consider a rational answer to that question. Or if you ask me how much material, time, labor and other expertise I need to build a skyscraper, I can reasonably attack that problem in a conscious manner. But, if you ask me to drop a hook shot into a basket at a full run, I have utterly no hope of solving that problem on a conscious level! Or how to convince my wife I think she is the greatest in the world! But I have apparently done it on a subconscious level.
You are absolutely right, no matter what we think is true, the best bet is we're wrong! But who cares? Let's have fun -- that's the only thing that's worthwhile in the end!
Have fun -- Dick
PS I liked Alan's comments too. He and I just don't communicate very well! It must be the math thing.