Again this presupposes that statistical analysis should somehow indicate God's will in the world. However, in order to show that God's will wasn't working in the world you would need to show a world that God's will wasn't being exercised. However, this is my premise that a world without God's will doesn't exist. You are only seeing the statistics of the world where God's will is engaged in the world.
As for the statistics of prayer versus not praying, this is very subjective. You cannot determine what counts as an event and what counts as a missed event. In addition, you cannot know the inner working of God in the world.
If you must use probability to determine such things as God's will, then I suggest that we not use the lives of people since this is far too complicated of a system to properly track. Why don't we use physics which you are very familiar?
Why don't we look at the physical constants and certain laws of physics in how they exhibit characteristics which are appropriate for advanced structures in the universe (e.g., atoms, molecules, stars, planets, galaxies, life, intelligence, etc)? We have a much better idea about these kinds of coincidences since they have fewer interconnections and are thus easy to understand their effect if the equations were slightly different.
For example, what would happen if Pauli's exclusion principle for fermions didn't exist? What would be the consequence if fermions responded in the same manner as bosons? Don't say mathematics doesn't allow it, just think of the consequences if Pauli's exclusion principle didn't exist.
What would be the effect if the mass of the proton and neutron were exactly the same? After all, they are guided by the symmetry of SU(2) group, so it isn't hard to imagine if protons and neutrons had the same mass.
Of course we can entertain human societies such as the effect on human history if East Africa wouldn't have had volcanic activity around 5 million years ago, or if that meteor had never hit 65 million years ago, but we have no way of imagining the effects accurately. Our best means to see extreme coincidence in the world that favors a 'will of God' in the world is through physics. I think that alone speaks for itself.
Warm regards, Harv