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Probability

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Posted by Mario Dovalina on October 16, 2001 17:54:24 UTC

Here's a pretty interesting [depressing] theory that I heard a long time ago. Tell me what you think of it:

If you were to make a list of all the humans who have ever existed, and all the humans who ever will existed, you almost certainly would form a rough Bell curve, right? Increasing to a main hump, then decreasing back down again to zero, eventually.

Now, consider this: the probability that the genes neccesary to produce YOUR individual consciousness would form are greatest at points of higher population. The more people around at a time, the bigger the chance one of them will be you. That is, you would expect, at least from a standpoint of probability, to find your name somewhere near the center of the list. So, purely MATHEMATICAL chances are that we are on the "hump" of human population, hence, chances are we do not stand on the threshold of a galactic empire.

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